Risk velocity (like risk mitigation) seems to be too much of a poor relation compared to risk probability and risk magnitude. Risk breadth is another aspect. For a given threat, if there is uncertainty on velocity, then having some broad mitigations like buying time and playing for time is helpful. Stepping out of the line of fire, threat containment, threat training (e.g. vaccines) or deflecting the threat are a few potential mitigations. Having an automatic counter-measure (poison pill or credible retaliation) to offset the threat is another.

Let’s take an example – the threat of river flooding on nearby human settlements. Thanks to weather forecasting, risk probability and magnitude may be reasonably well understood. But flooding from severe rain downfalls in a short space of time (risk velocity) is a primary driver of the overall threat. Mitigations include; developing a flood control scheme (threat dispersal and force deflection, threat containment). Installing nature-based solutions (peat bogs, mangrove marshes) not only contain the flooding threat, but also lock up carbon and provide wildlife habitats. They act as a counter-balance to the water threat.

Simon